![]() ![]() With the additional factor "corona virus", the situation changes fundamentally for the rest of the year. A bottoming out in the course of the first half of the year and a slow recovery in the second half of the year were considered to be quite realistic. Outlook 2020 - how it could have happenedĪt the beginning of 2020, it looked as if the German foundries still had a good chance of maintaining the 2019 production level in the final balance of the year. The minus rate was very different in the casting-intensive divisions. Because of the high export intensity, many branches of mechanical engineering suffer from global uncertainties. The German non-ferrous metal founders even had to accept a decrease of 16.6%. Declining orders from German mechanical and plant engineering led to a decline in production of iron and steel founders by 15.5% to 0.933 million tons. There was also a 2.3% decline on the non-ferrous metals side to 0.919 million t. This shows the increasing influence of the factory conversions of leading OEMs on e-mobility. For vehicle construction, the iron and steel foundries produced 2.087 million tons in 2019, 10.5% fewer components than in the previous year. For the foundry industry, this meant a noticeable decline in order intake regardless of the material. ![]() All of this led to high uncertainties and had a braking effect on the propensity to invest. In particular, three factors led to lower orders: a slowing global economy, structural change in the automotive industry and numerous politically motivated upheavals - such as Brexit and ongoing trade disputes between the USA and China and the EU. The customer industries in the foundry industry can look back on a challenging year due to weaker international demand. Three factors reduced the number of orders between mechanical engineering and electrical engineering is no longer possible. In the area of other cast components, which also accounted for 20 percent, there are many parts for mechanical engineering, as a clear demarcation e.g. Also in 2019, vehicle construction was by far the most important customer branch of the foundry industry with around 60%, followed by the machine - and plant construction with 20% of the total cast components. To put it in a nutshell: The decline compared to the extraordinarily high 2018 level is clear, but the production still corresponds to the level of 2010. The production of non-ferrous metal founders shrank more moderately. As in previous years, there was a heterogeneous development in the individual material groups: with 3.805 million tonnes, the iron and steel foundries produced 10.6% less than in 2018. Their sales also fell - by 8.5% to EUR 12.430 billion. The German foundry industry shrank last year by 8.9% to a total production (Fe and NE) of 4,950 million t. German cast production 2019: total figures By 2021 at the latest, catch-up effects should stimulate the German economy. ![]() If protective measures are gradually loosened from summer onwards, a gradual recovery in the second half of 2020 may be expected. ![]() Economic research institutes therefore view different scenarios as likely. The consequences for the economy can hardly be predicted and depend heavily on the length and depth of the health protection measures. The extent of the pandemic is not yet foreseeable. The many factors of uncertainty that affect companies' propensity to invest include: Brexit, existing trade conflicts between the economic powers and conflicts in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia and Russia) with uncertainty signals regarding oil and gas prices. Nevertheless, you should definitely keep an eye on them. At this point, a note: In addition to the corona pandemic, other important economic and political issues are currently disappearing in the general public and media landscape. Since the outbreak of the coronavirus in China and the global spread of the new pathogen, the tide has turned and will keep the economy in suspense in the coming months. After the year 2019 was already characterized by a wide range of uncertainties and unstable economic policy conditions and German industry had been in recession since the fourth quarter of 2018, it still looked like a trend reversal for 2020 with subsequently more stable business. ![]()
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